🏒 NHL GOALS REPORT

Wednesday, October 7 • sorted by model projected goals

Last updated October 7, 2026 at 5:31 PM

3games

🦕 5LittleFoot picks

PIT @ WSHtop game

Leon Draisaitltop scorer · +164

PIT@WSH7:30 PM ET
Capital One Arena

6.88proj goals

PIT 2.97 proj

vs Logan Thompson Confirmed

GSAx/xG +12.8% | tough matchup

Rickard RakellRF1PP1

Goal · 29%+248+257 · +3%2+ G+2071SOG · 2.63+ +110+113 · +1%TOI19.3

Sidney CrosbyCF1PP1

Goal · 27%+267+245 · -6%2+ G+2330SOG · 2.53+ +124+135 · +5%TOI19.3

Bryan RustRF3PP2

Goal · 25%+299+257 · -11%2+ G+2807SOG · 2.23+ +174+135 · -14%TOI17.2

WSH 3.91 proj

vs Arturs Silovs Confirmed

GSAx/xG -8.7% | soft matchup

Alex OvechkinLF2PP1+EV

Goal · 35%+187+208 · +7%2+ G+1338SOG · 2.93+ -120-117 · +1%TOI17.4

Tom WilsonRF1PP1+EV

Goal · 32%+211+270 · +19%2+ G+1610SOG · 2.13+ +180+178 · -1%TOI19.4

Alex TuchRF1PP2

Goal · 32%+211+212 · +0%2+ G+1614SOG · 2.33+ +140+122 · -8%TOI18.5

Aliaksei ProtasLF3+EV

Goal · 25%+294+388 · +24%2+ G+2728SOG · 1.83+ +290+277 · -3%TOI15.4

Pierre-Luc DuboisCF1PP1🦕 LITTLEFOOT⬆ ROLE+EV

Goal · 25%+305+413 · +27%2+ G+2899SOG · 1.83+ +259+233 · -7%TOI18.4

F1 slot ~19.5 min vs 17.0 history; model +305 vs book +413 (+27% EV)

COL@WPG7:30 PM ET
Canada Life Centre

6.44proj goals

COL 3.61 proj

vs Stuart Skinner Unconfirmed

GSAx/xG +2.7% | tough matchup

Nathan MacKinnonCF1PP1

Goal · 37%+170+127 · -16%2+ G+1159SOG · 3.93+ -291TOI20.9

Martin NecasCF1PP1

Goal · 30%+229+174 · -17%2+ G+1832SOG · 2.53+ +114-138 · -19%TOI20.1

Artturi LehkonenLF1PP2

Goal · 28%+251+264 · +4%2+ G+2118SOG · 2.13+ +175+203 · +10%TOI18.6

Brock NelsonCF2PP2

Goal · 27%+275+239 · -9%2+ G+2444SOG · 2.13+ +177+167 · -4%TOI17.7

WPG 2.83 proj

vs Mackenzie Blackwood Likely

GSAx/xG +4.5% | tough matchup

Kyle ConnorLF1PP1

Goal · 33%+205+163 · -14%2+ G+1546SOG · 3.23+ -169-233 · -10%TOI20.8

Mark ScheifeleCF1PP1

Goal · 29%+244+239 · -1%2+ G+2025SOG · 2.13+ +184+182 · -1%TOI20.5

Gabriel VilardiCF2PP1

Goal · 25%+299+264 · -9%2+ G+2805SOG · 1.73+ +294+228 · -17%TOI17.0

Cole PerfettiCF1PP1🦕 LITTLEFOOT⬆ ROLE

Goal · 23%+333+292 · -9%2+ G+3342SOG · 2.23+ +158+144 · -5%TOI18.0

F1 slot ~19.7 min vs 15.6 history

EDM@ANA10:00 PM ET
Honda Center

6.29proj goals

EDM 3.00 proj

vs Lukas Dostal Confirmed

GSAx/xG +1.5% | average matchup

Leon DraisaitlCF1PP1

Goal · 38%+164+109 · -21%2+ G+1107SOG · 2.93+ -123-190 · -16%TOI21.4

Connor McDavidCF1PP1

Goal · 38%+166+116 · -19%2+ G+1123SOG · 3.33+ -173-194 · -4%TOI22.7

Vasily PodkolzinRF1PP1🦕 LITTLEFOOT⬆ ROLE

Goal · 25%+307+208 · -24%2+ G+2924SOG · 2.23+ +166+105 · -23%TOI18.5

F1 slot ~19.7 min vs 14.8 history; PP1 now (history 0.4 PP min/game)

Kasperi KapanenRF2PP1🦕 LITTLEFOOT⬆ ROLE

Goal · 19%+440+292 · -27%2+ G+5350SOG · 1.93+ +247+194 · -15%TOI17.4

F2 slot ~18.0 min vs 13.7 history; PP1 now (history 0.4 PP min/game)

ANA 3.28 proj

vs Devon Levi Confirmed

GSAx/xG -9.7% | soft matchup

Cutter GauthierLF1PP1⬆ ROLE

Goal · 35%+182+116 · -23%2+ G+1293SOG · 3.23+ -166-270 · -14%TOI18.0

Leo CarlssonCF1PP1

Goal · 30%+231+190 · -13%2+ G+1864SOG · 2.23+ +157+122 · -14%TOI18.9

Beckett SenneckeRF2PP1

Goal · 29%+239+208 · -9%2+ G+1964SOG · 2.33+ +145+140 · -2%TOI17.8

Mikael GranlundCF2PP1

Goal · 27%+266+277 · +3%2+ G+2328SOG · 1.93+ +238+212 · -8%TOI18.6

A.J. GreerLF1🦕 LITTLEFOOT⬆ ROLE+EV

Goal · 19%+424+500 · +15%2+ G+5025SOG · 1.53+ +427TOI14.1

F1 slot ~16.7 min vs 11.5 history; model +424 vs book +500 (+15% EV)

🦕 LittleFoot picks rising role or usage the market hasn't priced yet

Player	Team	Role	Picked	Model	Market	Edge	Why
🦕 Pierre-Luc Dubois	WSH v PIT	F1 · PP1	PM	+305	+413 novig	+27%	F1 slot ~19.5 min vs 17.0 history
🦕 A.J. Greer	ANA v EDM	F1	AM · PM	+424	+500 draftkings	+15%	F1 slot ~16.7 min vs 11.5 history
🦕 Cole Perfetti	WPG v COL	F1 · PP1	PM	+333	+292 novig	-9%	PM pick — no longer qualifies (edge now -9%)
🦕 Vasily Podkolzin	EDM v ANA	F1 · PP1	PM	+307	+208 novig	-24%	PM pick — no longer qualifies (edge now -24%)
🦕 Kasperi Kapanen	EDM v ANA	F2 · PP1	PM	+440	+292 novig	-27%	PM pick — no longer qualifies (edge now -27%)

Picked = run that made the pick (AM = morning, PM = 1 PM / 5:30 PM); a pick stays on the board and in the record even if a later run drops it. Market = sportsbook odds when pulled; otherwise an estimate from his goals per game (the "box-score price").

🦕 LittleFoot track record season to date · graded from NHL box scores

Group	Picks	Hits	Hit%	Break-even%	Units	ROI	Pending
🦕 LittleFoot (all)	17	5	29.4%	20.6%	+1.33u (15)	+35%	5
↳ Morning picks	0	0	—	—	—	—	1
↳ Afternoon picks	0	0	—	—	—	—	5
Top 25 (not LittleFoot)	196	60	30.6%	33.7%	-4.89u (190)	-10%	23
🔥 Trend (all)	0	0	—	—	—	—	0
⬆ Role (all)	366	61	16.7%	17.4%	-1.99u (357)	-2%	21

PM Kasperi Kapanen pendingAM · PM A.J. Greer pendingPM Vasily Podkolzin pendingPM Cole Perfetti pendingPM Pierre-Luc Dubois pendingZachary Bolduc ✅ 2GJack Roslovic ✅ 1GJamie Benn ✅ 1GIgor Chernyshov ❌Roope Hintz ❌Fabian Zetterlund ❌Warren Foegele ❌Andrew Copp ❌Cole Perfetti ✅ 1GPierre-Luc Dubois ❌

Small sample — anytime-goal results swing a lot; judge the tag after ~150 graded picks. Break-even% = hit rate needed to profit at the book odds. Units = 0.25u per pick at the book odds pulled before the game (bets counted in brackets); picks without book odds aren't counted. A pick made in both runs counts in both Morning and Afternoon. DNPs are voided.

Best prices vs model (+EV)

Player	Team	Market	Book		Fair	EV	Market fair · EV
Jeff Malott	ANA v EDM	Anytime goal	+1200	draftkings	+708	+60.9%	+1100 +8.3% ✔
Judd Caulfield	ANA v EDM	Anytime goal	+1100	draftkings	+747	+41.8%	+1042 +5.0% ✔
Boone Jenner	WSH v PIT	Anytime goal	+600	draftkings	+420	+34.7%	+552 +7.4% ✔
Zachary L'Heureux	COL v WPG	Anytime goal	+900	draftkings	+663	+31.0%	+774 +14.4% ✔
Tim Washe	ANA v EDM	Anytime goal	+1000	bovada	+753	+29.0%	+990 +0.9% ✔
Pierre-Luc Dubois	WSH v PIT	Anytime goal	+413	novig	+305	+26.6%	+415 -0.5%
Timothy Liljegren	WSH v PIT	Anytime goal	+2000	draftkings	+1580	+25.0%	+1800 +10.5% ✔
Aliaksei Protas	WSH v PIT	Anytime goal	+388	novig	+294	+23.9%	+395 -1.5%
Nazem Kadri	COL v WPG	SOG 3+	+122	novig	-123	+22.2%	+127 -2.1%
Tom Wilson	WSH v PIT	Anytime goal	+270	novig	+211	+19.1%	+242 +8.1% ✔
Nazem Kadri	COL v WPG	SOG 4+	+257	novig	+206	+16.8%	—
Devon Toews	COL v WPG	SOG 2+	+122	novig	-108	+15.2%	+125 -1.5%
Trevor van Riemsdyk	PIT v WSH	Anytime goal	+2500	draftkings	+2160	+15.0%	+1980 +25.0% ✔
A.J. Greer	ANA v EDM	Anytime goal	+500	draftkings	+424	+14.6%	+474 +4.5% ✔
Connor Dewar	PIT v WSH	Anytime goal	+700	novig	+601	+14.1%	+704 -0.5%
Anthony Beauvillier	WSH v PIT	SOG 3+	+308	novig	+260	+13.3%	—
Gabriel Landeskog	COL v WPG	SOG 3+	+217	novig	+180	+13.2%	—
Martin Fehérváry	WSH v PIT	Anytime goal	+1700	bovada	+1492	+13.0%	+1650 +2.8% ✔
T.J. Hughes	COL v WPG	Anytime goal	+426	novig	+369	+12.1%	+489 -10.7%
Brent Burns	COL v WPG	SOG 2+	+104	novig	-122	+12.1%	+108 -2.0%
Mathieu Joseph	EDM v ANA	Anytime goal	+900	draftkings	+800	+11.1%	+861 +4.0% ✔
Artturi Lehkonen	COL v WPG	SOG 2+	-133	novig	-173	+10.9%	-130 -1.1%
Artturi Lehkonen	COL v WPG	SOG 3+	+203	novig	+175	+10.2%	—
Sam Malinski	COL v WPG	SOG 2+	-108	novig	-133	+10.0%	-105 -1.4%
Jordan Kyrou	WSH v PIT	SOG 3+	+167	novig	+144	+9.2%	—
Evgeni Malkin	PIT v WSH	SOG 2+	-141	novig	-176	+9.1%	-139 -0.7%
Blake Lizotte	PIT v WSH	Anytime goal	+852	novig	+774	+8.9%	+942 -8.7%
Ben Kindel	PIT v WSH	Anytime goal	+390	draftkings	+350	+8.9%	+438 -8.9%
Dylan Strome	WSH v PIT	SOG 2+	-104	novig	-124	+8.4%	-102 -1.0%
Justin Sourdif	WSH v PIT	Anytime goal	+590	novig	+537	+8.4%	+593 -0.5%
Tommy Novak	PIT v WSH	SOG 3+	+270	novig	+243	+7.8%	—
Brock Nelson	COL v WPG	SOG 2+	-141	novig	-170	+7.7%	-147 +1.8% ✔
T.J. Hughes	COL v WPG	SOG 2+	-125	novig	-148	+7.5%	-119 -2.0%
Alex Ovechkin	WSH v PIT	Anytime goal	+208	novig	+187	+7.5%	+223 -4.7%
Dylan Samberg	WPG v COL	Anytime goal	+2122	novig	+1970	+7.3%	+2200 -3.4%
Jaden Schwartz	COL v WPG	Anytime goal	+400	novig	+367	+7.0%	+465 -11.5%
Jordan Kyrou	WSH v PIT	SOG 2+	-170	novig	-206	+7.0%	-161 -2.0%
Anthony Beauvillier	WSH v PIT	SOG 2+	-106	novig	-120	+6.2%	+104 -4.9%
Nazem Kadri	COL v WPG	SOG 2+	-285	novig	-361	+5.8%	—
Kris Letang	PIT v WSH	SOG 2+	+125	novig	+113	+5.7%	+127 -1.0%
Jordan Kyrou	WSH v PIT	SOG 4+	+413	novig	+389	+4.9%	—
Sidney Crosby	PIT v WSH	SOG 3+	+135	bovada	+124	+4.7%	+125 +4.5% ✔
Mark Scheifele	WPG v COL	SOG 2+	-147	novig	-164	+4.5%	-146 -0.2%
Owen Michaels	EDM v ANA	Anytime goal	+600	draftkings	+570	+4.4%	+580 +2.9% ✔
Bryan Rust	PIT v WSH	SOG 2+	-155	bovada	-173	+4.3%	-140 -4.1%
Evgeni Malkin	PIT v WSH	SOG 3+	+182	novig	+171	+4.1%	—
Mikael Granlund	ANA v EDM	SOG 2+	-120	bovada	-130	+3.7%	-116 -1.7%
Artturi Lehkonen	COL v WPG	Anytime goal	+264	novig	+251	+3.7%	+255 +2.4% ✔
Jakob Chychrun	WSH v PIT	SOG 3+	+115	novig	+108	+3.5%	+120 -2.4%
Nick Robertson	PIT v WSH	SOG 2+	+104	novig	-103	+3.3%	+124 -9.1%
Gabriel Landeskog	COL v WPG	SOG 2+	-155	fliff	-168	+3.1%	-134 -5.9%
Parker Kelly	COL v WPG	Anytime goal	+641	novig	+619	+3.1%	+663 -2.9%
Adam Lowry	WPG v COL	Anytime goal	+600	draftkings	+580	+3.0%	+683 -10.6%
Mikael Granlund	ANA v EDM	Anytime goal	+277	novig	+266	+2.9%	+295 -4.6%
Tommy Novak	PIT v WSH	SOG 2+	-120	pinnacle	-128	+2.9%	-102 -7.4%
Josh Morrissey	WPG v COL	SOG 2+	-135	novig	-144	+2.8%	-140 +1.6% ✔
Rickard Rakell	PIT v WSH	Anytime goal	+257	novig	+248	+2.7%	+250 +2.0% ✔
Rickard Rakell	PIT v WSH	SOG 2+	-245	novig	-268	+2.5%	—
Ben Kindel	PIT v WSH	SOG 3+	+186	novig	+179	+2.5%	—
Nathan MacKinnon	COL v WPG	SOG 4+	-113	novig	-119	+2.4%	-116 +1.3% ✔
Pierre-Luc Dubois	WSH v PIT	SOG 2+	-115	novig	-121	+2.4%	-101 -5.8%
Alex Killorn	ANA v EDM	SOG 2+	-100	novig	-105	+2.4%	+104 -1.8%
Gabriel Vilardi	WPG v COL	SOG 2+	-104	novig	-108	+1.9%	-101 -1.5%
Nikita Nesterenko	ANA v EDM	Anytime goal	+700	draftkings	+686	+1.8%	+734 -4.0%
Cale Makar	COL v WPG	SOG 2+	-270	novig	-288	+1.7%	—
Kasperi Kapanen	EDM v ANA	SOG 2+	-122	novig	-126	+1.5%	-118 -1.4%
Aliaksei Protas	WSH v PIT	SOG 2+	-106	novig	-109	+1.5%	-102 -2.0%
Rickard Rakell	PIT v WSH	SOG 3+	+113	novig	+110	+1.4%	+119 -2.6%
Alex Ovechkin	WSH v PIT	SOG 3+	-117	novig	-120	+1.1%	-110 -2.9%
Alex Tuch	WSH v PIT	Anytime goal	+212	novig	+211	+0.3%	+215 -1.1%
Egor Chinakhov	PIT v WSH	SOG 3+	+170	novig	+169	+0.2%	—
Morgan Barron	WPG v COL	Anytime goal	+675	bovada	+527	+23.7%	unconfirmed longshot
Alex Formenton	EDM v ANA	Anytime goal	+650	draftkings	+526	+19.8%	unconfirmed longshot

Anytime goal — top 25

#	Player	Team	Role	Prob	Fair	xG	Tags
1	Leon Draisaitl	EDM v ANA	F1 · PP1	38%	+164+109 · -21%	0.48
2	Connor McDavid	EDM v ANA	F1 · PP1	38%	+166+116 · -19%	0.47
3	Nathan MacKinnon	COL v WPG	F1 · PP1	37%	+170+127 · -16%	0.46
4	Cutter Gauthier	ANA v EDM	F1 · PP1	35%	+182+116 · -23%	0.44	⬆ ROLE
5	Alex Ovechkin	WSH v PIT	F2 · PP1	35%	+187+208 · +7%	0.43	+EV
6	Kyle Connor	WPG v COL	F1 · PP1	33%	+205+163 · -14%	0.40
7	Tom Wilson	WSH v PIT	F1 · PP1	32%	+211+270 · +19%	0.39	+EV
8	Alex Tuch	WSH v PIT	F1 · PP2	32%	+211+212 · +0%	0.39
9	Martin Necas	COL v WPG	F1 · PP1	30%	+229+174 · -17%	0.36
10	Leo Carlsson	ANA v EDM	F1 · PP1	30%	+231+190 · -13%	0.36
11	Beckett Sennecke	ANA v EDM	F2 · PP1	29%	+239+208 · -9%	0.35
12	Mark Scheifele	WPG v COL	F1 · PP1	29%	+244+239 · -1%	0.34
13	Rickard Rakell	PIT v WSH	F1 · PP1	29%	+248+257 · +3%	0.34
14	Artturi Lehkonen	COL v WPG	F1 · PP2	28%	+251+264 · +4%	0.34
15	Mikael Granlund	ANA v EDM	F2 · PP1	27%	+266+277 · +3%	0.32
16	Sidney Crosby	PIT v WSH	F1 · PP1	27%	+267+245 · -6%	0.32
17	Brock Nelson	COL v WPG	F2 · PP2	27%	+275+239 · -9%	0.31
18	Aliaksei Protas	WSH v PIT	F3	25%	+294+388 · +24%	0.29	+EV
19	Gabriel Vilardi	WPG v COL	F2 · PP1	25%	+299+264 · -9%	0.29
20	Bryan Rust	PIT v WSH	F3 · PP2	25%	+299+257 · -11%	0.29
21	Pierre-Luc Dubois	WSH v PIT	F1 · PP1	25%	+305+413 · +27%	0.28	🦕 LITTLEFOOT⬆ ROLE+EV
22	Vasily Podkolzin	EDM v ANA	F1 · PP1	25%	+307+208 · -24%	0.28	🦕 LITTLEFOOT⬆ ROLE
23	Dylan Strome	WSH v PIT	F2 · PP1	25%	+307+300 · -2%	0.28
24	Nazem Kadri	COL v WPG	F2 · PP1	25%	+308+264 · -11%	0.28
25	Jordan Kyrou	WSH v PIT	F3 · PP2	24%	+317+290 · -6%	0.27

Shots on goal 3+ — top 25

#	Player	Team	Role	Prob	Fair	Exp SOG	Tags
1	Nathan MacKinnon	COL v WPG	F1 · PP1	74%	-291	3.88
2	Connor McDavid	EDM v ANA	F1 · PP1	63%	-173-194 · -4%	3.27
3	Kyle Connor	WPG v COL	F1 · PP1	63%	-169-233 · -10%	3.24
4	Cutter Gauthier	ANA v EDM	F1 · PP1	62%	-166-270 · -14%	3.22	⬆ ROLE
5	Leon Draisaitl	EDM v ANA	F1 · PP1	55%	-123-190 · -16%	2.89
6	Nazem Kadri	COL v WPG	F2 · PP1	55%	-123+122 · +22%	2.89
7	Alex Ovechkin	WSH v PIT	F2 · PP1	54%	-120-117 · +1%	2.86	+EV
8	Evan Bouchard	EDM v ANA	D1 · PP1	52%	-107-117 · -4%	2.74
9	Cale Makar	COL v WPG	D1 · PP1	49%	+102	2.65
10	Jakob Chychrun	WSH v PIT	D1 · PP1	48%	+108+115 · +4%	2.60
11	Rickard Rakell	PIT v WSH	F1 · PP1	48%	+110+113 · +1%	2.58
12	Martin Necas	COL v WPG	F1 · PP1	47%	+114-138 · -19%	2.55
13	Sidney Crosby	PIT v WSH	F1 · PP1	45%	+124+135 · +5%	2.46
14	Alex Tuch	WSH v PIT	F1 · PP2	42%	+140+122 · -8%	2.35
15	Jordan Kyrou	WSH v PIT	F3 · PP2	41%	+144+167 · +9%	2.32
16	Beckett Sennecke	ANA v EDM	F2 · PP1	41%	+145+140 · -2%	2.31
17	Leo Carlsson	ANA v EDM	F1 · PP1	39%	+157+122 · -14%	2.24
18	Cole Perfetti	WPG v COL	F1 · PP1	39%	+158+144 · -5%	2.24	🦕 LITTLEFOOT⬆ ROLE
19	Vasily Podkolzin	EDM v ANA	F1 · PP1	38%	+166+105 · -23%	2.20	🦕 LITTLEFOOT⬆ ROLE
20	Egor Chinakhov	PIT v WSH	F2 · PP2	37%	+169+170 · +0%	2.18	⬆ ROLE
21	Evgeni Malkin	PIT v WSH	F2 · PP2	37%	+171+182 · +4%	2.17
22	Bryan Rust	PIT v WSH	F3 · PP2	37%	+174+135 · -14%	2.15
23	Artturi Lehkonen	COL v WPG	F1 · PP2	36%	+175+203 · +10%	2.15
24	Brock Nelson	COL v WPG	F2 · PP2	36%	+177+167 · -4%	2.14
25	Erik Karlsson	PIT v WSH	D1 · PP1	36%	+178+142 · -13%	2.13